The New NBA Draft Lottery Odds & How They Work

This proposed change to how the NBA decides which bad (tanking) team gets the No. 1 draft pick and the chance to choose the best player.

Currently, the system gives the absolute worst teams the highest chance to get that top pick. The new proposal changes the rules so that losing on purpose (“tanking”) doesn’t help as much. But really, if you ask me it just invites more tanks to the battle.

The Current Rules

• The worst teams get the best odds:
  The three teams with the absolute worst records each have a 14% chance (the highest) of getting the top pick.

• Slightly better teams get almost nothing:
  As you move down the list to teams that won a few more games, their chances drop drastically, all the way down to a tiny 0.5% chance.

• The Incentives:
  This encourages bad teams to lose even more games on purpose at the end of the year to secure that 14% chance.

The New Rules

• The worst teams get penalized:
  The three worst teams see their chances drop from 14% down to 5.4%.

• The middle teams get a boost:
  Teams ranked 4th-worst down to 10th-worst all get an equal, higher chance (8.1%).

• Play-in teams get a chance:
  Even the teams that almost made the playoffs (the 9th and 10th seeds, and the losers of the Play-in tournament) get a decent shot at the top pick.

The Big Takeaway

The new proposal flattens the odds. It makes losing on purpose much less rewarding for the absolute worst teams, while giving decent teams that just missed the playoffs a much better chance to get lucky and land the best player.