Much love if you are affected by this in any way. Hopefully the virus will be eradicated soon.

Here are Tobi’s detailed symptoms and fight to treat COVID-19:

I survived coronavirus. Spent nearly 2 weeks indoors + in quarantine as my body fought it off. Yesterday, I took my first steps downstairs, headed straight to my garden + took a deep breath

#YellowCupPodcast
@TobiRachel_

Wasn’t gonna share this online but I’ve been encouraged to share hope & good news 1/18

Because a lot of us may not get access to Covid-19 testing kits and calls with NHS 111 feel scripted, I’ll share my experience. It may help someone. These were my symptoms… 2/18

Day 1: I’d been informed that I was in contact with someone who had been in contact with someone with covid-19. Nothing serious I told myself, but I decided to social distance anyway. Later I found out I’d been in direct contact with a confirmed case 5 days before. 3/18

Day 2: I develop a very dry cough. And a swollen gland I developed 2 days before Day 1 became very prominent. The cough was persistent making speaking for longer than 40 secs hard. I was extremely fatigued. I’m anaemic and well acquainted with tiredness but this was chronic 4/18

Day 3: A good night sleep did not help. My chest was painfully tight, at first I blamed work anxiety. I developed a fever (was hot + cold at the same time). I struggled to walk and my breathing became shallow + difficult. The muscles in my neck began to ache. 5/18

Day 4: The scariest day. Woke up feeling like I’d been run over by a truck in my sleep and then thrown of a cliff. The muscles in my face ached. The muscles in eyes hurt. Every muscle hurt. My persistent cough became extremely painful. Developed a painful migraine. 6/18

Day 4: Still with a fever and cough. On this day I became frightful of how my body would force itself to sleep. My breathing was worrying and I feared the worst. I called NHS 111 who confirmed my suspicions and instructed me to self-isolate in my room as I don’t live alone. 7/18

Day 5: I slept a lot. Keeping my eyes open was painful and a core. Wore sunglasses to use my phone. The sunlight made my migraine worst. My body ached and my breathing became worst. Coughing didn’t help. I could feel my lungs getting heavier, every breath got shorter. 8/18

Day 6: Painkillers did not stop the pain. Also stockpiling trends meant even my pharmacist could not help. Was scared to sleep as my breathing was not improving. Could not hold my breath for more than 2 secs. 9/18

Day 7: I became alarmed when I noticed I lost the ability to taste food. Nearly passed out brushing my teeth as it was obstructing my breathing. NHS were too overstretched to help. At this point I was begging God, I didn’t want to die this way 10/18

Day 8: Twitter said that running a humid shower would help breathing. It did for me. I drew my curtains for the 1st time, still needed sunglasses. Body aches stopped. Migraine not so persistent. Coughed less but it was a nauseous and brought up yellowy phlemg from my lungs 11/18

Day 8: Still breathless from just sitting up, sharp pains in my chest but migraine improved. Body temperature back to normal. Coughed about twice a day. Found the strength to find hope. 12/18

Day 9-12: Saw improvements slowly. Was able to hold my breath for 8 secs now. Slept less, was able to WFH at times. Called NHS again due to a scare with breathing, unable to get medical assistance but the problem solved itself. Became physically restless on Day 11 13/18

Day 13: Walked down the stairs for the first time. Thanked God and walked around my garden. Wasn’t sure I’d remember what fresh air would feel like. 14/18

I know the staff at NHS did everything they could for me with the limited resources they had. On a normal day, I would have been accepted into A&E. It was touch and go. Also, I was not tested. 15/18

I’ve lost several days of my life to this illness. Many others have lost their lives. You can do your part by staying at home, stop joking around & take it seriously. I’m a healthy 28 year old & it hit me hard. I’m grateful to have recovered but I will continue to do my part. 16

I might do another thread on what helped me get through it?

I’m gonna talk about the emotional side of coping with this during the next episode @YellowCupPod. It includes avoiding anxiety, my faith, prayers and positive affirmations.

17/18

If you also have something to add and want to be a part of this episode, feel free to email me at podcast[at]tobirachel[dot]com

THE END 18/18

Getting the same Qs, so I will answer ONCE here

1. Only took paracetamol and lots of fluids as advised by NHS (UK’s national health service). Please alert professionals about your case. Don’t suffer alone.
2. Was told my case was “mild”, hence the lack of medical assistance /19
3. Smell/taste senses came back on Day 9/10
4. I’m not a professional and can’t advise anybody. So sorry. I can only share my experience
5. I wrote a journal as it happened, that’s how I remembered
6. Now I struggle with fatigue and minor breathing issues /20

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we’ve seen in the US this week. Read it; it’s terrifying. I’ll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I’ve gotten it wrong.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing — if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here’s what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans — in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It’s more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It’s the population of Los Angeles. It’s 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War…on both sides combined. It’s two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world’s population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won’t stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a “mitigation” strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you’ve seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should “flatten the curve”: try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve — but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That’s what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a “suppression” strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don’t exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here’s the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can’t be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That’s an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can’t be rushed: if you’re going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won’t kill them. It probably won’t, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we’re doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.

It’s easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It’s very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that’s exactly what we’re going to have to do.